Twitter mood predicts the stock market

1 Twitter mood predicts the stock market. Johan Bollen1, ,Huina Mao1, ,Xiao-Jun Zeng2. : authors made equal contributions. Abstract—Behavioral economics tells us that emotions can profoundly affect individual behavior and decision-making. Does this also... More

1 Twitter mood predicts the stock market. Johan Bollen1, ,Huina Mao1, ,Xiao-Jun Zeng2. : authors made equal contributions. Abstract—Behavioral economics tells us that emotions can profoundly affect individual behavior and decision-making. Does this also apply to societies at large, i. e. can societies experience mood states that affect their collective decision making? By extension is the public mood correlated or even predictive of economic indicators? Here we investigate whether measurements of collective mood states derived from large-scale Twitter feeds are correlated to the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over time. We analyze the text content of daily Twitter feeds by two mood tracking tools, namely OpinionFinder that measures positive vs. negative mood and Google-Profile of Mood States (GPOMS) that measures mood in terms of 6 dimensions (Calm, Alert, Sure, Vital, Kind, and Happy). We cross-validate the resulting mood time series by comparing their ability Less